Abstrakt
Prezentowany artykuł jest studium przeglądowym, wykonanym przy zastosowaniu techniki a snow-ballingu. Jego podstawowym celem jest dokonanie pogłębionej analizy sześciu ważnych, w subiektywnej ocenie autora, problemów dotyczących zarządzania ryzykiem w produkcji zwierzęcej. Punktem wyjścia rozważań jest prosta konstatacja, że rolnicy zajmujący się produkcją zwierzęcą są konfrontowani z wieloma ryzykami, które w ostateczności (po ich zmaterializowaniu) mogą pogarszać ich kondycję ekonomiczno-finansową. Najpoważniejszym zagrożeniem są jednak choroby i epidemie zwierząt, które negatywnie mogą wpływać również na sytuację budżetową państw oraz podaż produktów zwierzęcych i ich jakość oraz ceny. W tym kontekście i rolnicy, i władze publiczne powinni dysponować odpowiednimi modelami ekonomicznymi do kontroli zdrowia i chorób zwierząt. Ich przegląd znajduje się w artykule. Skuteczne posługiwanie się modelami wymaga jednak od wszystkich interesariuszy przynajmniej ogólnej znajomości źródeł ryzyk, ich percepcji oraz nastawień do nich samych producentów rolnych. W artykule analizuje się również te kategorie. Zaprezentowano w nim także stronę formalną modelowania ryzyka produkcyjnego i cenowego, żeby móc m.in. ustosunkować się do przyczyn małego rozpowszechnienia się tradycyjnych ubezpieczeń w produkcji zwierzęcej. W ślad za tym uzyskano rzetelne udokumentowanie rekomendacji praktycznej i politycznej, będących zarazem głównym wnioskiem z przeprowadzonej analizy, iż w każdym kraju powinno się dysponować holistycznym systemem zarządzania ryzykiem w chowie i hodowli zwierząt gospodarskich. Oczywiście, powinien on być ciągle doskonalony. Bardzo pożądane jest przy tym, aby stopniowo wspierany był on modelami dynamiki systemów złożonych.
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